The Big 12 conference in college football has been struggling to keep up with its powerhouse counterparts in the College Football Playoff (CFP) era. Despite having two conference champions in the last two years, the Big 12 has yet to secure a single CFP appearance, a stark contrast to the dominance of the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. This disparity is evident in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which ranks teams based on their projected performance.
ESPN's FPI rankings for the Big 12 teams paint a picture of a conference with a strong top tier but a significant drop-off in the middle and bottom. Texas Tech leads the way with a 57.9% chance of making the CFP, followed by BYU at 25.7% and Utah at 11.1%. However, the rest of the conference faces an uphill battle. Only nine Big 12 schools have a 60% chance or better of winning six games and becoming bowl eligible, indicating a top-heavy league.
The SEC, Big Ten, and ACC dominate the top 25 spots in the FPI rankings. The SEC, in particular, boasts 12 teams in the top 25, with four in the top 10, showcasing its depth and consistency. The Big Ten follows closely behind with seven teams in the top 25, including the No. 1-ranked Ohio State. The ACC, while having the two lowest-ranked power conference schools, still manages to place three teams in the top 25, including Miami at No. 7.
The Big 12's parity is evident in the middle and lower ranks. After Texas Tech and BYU, the conference's teams are spread out between ranks 31 and 46. This parity suggests that any team could have a strong season, but it also means that the competition is fierce, making it challenging for the conference to consistently produce top-tier teams.
Looking ahead, the Big 12 has 13 opportunities to face other power conference programs during the 2026 regular season. This presents a chance for the conference to improve its perception and increase its chances of making a national impact in the CFP. However, the conference's current state and the dominance of other power conferences suggest that the Big 12 will need to make significant strides to close the gap and establish itself as a consistent contender in college football's elite.
